Prospects for rain

I've always maintained that I get my monsoons when there are hurricanes in the Pacific. Most of the time the Gulf of Mexico hurricanes seem to be blocked by mountains from affecting the oasis enough to cause the flash flooding that I need to fill my tanks. So I pay attention to Pacific hurricane activity.

This year, above normal activity and number of hurricanes were predicted based mainly on this being an El Niño year with warmer sea surface temperatures. When we got good rains in June, I was really optimistic about the summer monsoon season. So what happened?

Well, for the first time since records were being reliably kept (1971), this year is the latest-starting  Pacific hurricane season. Additionally, no hurricanes formed in August for the first time since 1973. However, the season doesn't end until November 30, so I'm still hopeful.

Gulf of Mexico activity has resulted in a few good rains all around me, but very scant rainfall at the oasis, which is what I've learned to expect. Now we have a decent chance of rain next week. Except the oasis is in the "rain shadow."

A rain shadow is a dry area on the leeward side of a mountainous area. The mountains block the passage of rain-producing weather systems and cast a "shadow" of dryness behind them.

This summer, we've endured record heat, and I've had to water twice a week all summer long.* I don't remember a time when there were so few butterflies at the oasis, but admittedly I haven't always paid as much attention to their numbers as I have the last several years.

I'm certainly grateful for that June rainfall that filled my tanks, so at least I don't have to worry about water for quite some time. And really grateful for the new tank that is full just in case the worst happens.

Speaking of the new tank, the big Lubber Grasshoppers have totally stripped the leaves off most of the Tree Tobacco around the tank. It'll seed itself and hopefully do better next year. If I was there all the time I could pick them off, but when I'm gone they prevail.

* I was amused by a visitor several days ago. I was complaining about the lack of summer rain and he said there must be some good sub-surface water for the oasis to be so lush looking. Don't I wish! The mechanics of the oasis seem to be hard for most visitors to comprehend. I guess that's what makes it special.